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Posts: 8416
Jan 24 07 10:55 AM
Quote:The new Georgia Tech study has now clarified this issue, showing that while hurricane intensity may be substantially influenced by these other factors for an individual storm or storm season, only an increase in sea surface temperatures can account for the long term increase in hurricane strength. Hoyos and co-workers analysed how four different climatic factors -- sea surface temperatures, humidity in the lower troposphere, vertical wind shear and the changes in "zonal" winds with longitude -- varied between 1970 and 2004, based on satellite data for the North Atlantic, West Pacific, East Pacific, South Pacific, South Indian and North Indian oceans. The team used information theory to analyse the relationship between the variables and the number of Category 4 and 5 hurricanes observed, and employed time series analysis to distinguish long-term trends from shorter-term variations. The results showed a clear, positive increase in global sea surface temperatures since 1970, and no sign of any global trends in humidity, wind shear or zonal wind change. "This research supports the hypothesis that the worldwide increase in sea surface temperatures since 1970 is contributing to increase in global hurricane intensity," team member Judith Curry told PhysicsWeb. "The current consensus is that the increase in tropical sea surface temperatures during the last 35 years is attributed to anthropogenic greenhouse warming."
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