My forecast is that if Obama has a clear lead in pledged delegates and the popular vote going into the convention, Hillary's hold on the superdelegates will evaporate. But if she can claim victory on either of those scores - pledged delegates, or the popular vote - then the race will be ambiguous enough for her to use her pull with the superdelegates and claim the nomination.

Right now the democratic base is divided between two candidates but united ideologically; they want to win, and the overwhelming majority of Hillary supporters will campaign for Obama, or vice versa, depending on who wins the nomination. But if Hillary were to win purely on the vote of party movers & shakers, after having lost both the pledged delegate count and the popular vote, the press will play it as a circumvension of democracy and everyone who voted for Obama will come out of the primary season feeling royally screwed. Given the enthusiasm over him and the negative feelings about Hillary, the resulting storm could split the base and destroy democrat's chances in the general. The superdelegates know this, which is why I think they'll fall in line with Obama if he is the perceived winner vote-wise.

The Florida & Michigan delegations will only be seated if it becomes clear that seating them won't make any difference either way, for similar reasons. If seating them awards the nom to Hillary when she wouldn't have won it otherwise, then doing so after declaring that they wouldn't count would again leave over half the base feeling incredibly cheated.

Right now it's all about Obama's momentum between now and March 4, and how far it can carry him in Ohio and Texas. If he can fight her to a perceived tie in one or both of those states he's pretty much got it, I think. And he does have Hawaii next week (which he'll win) and Wisconsin (which he'll probably win) to add to his momentum in the meantime. But taking those big states away from Hillary is still a tall order.

Right now I give Obama a slight edge; his frontrunner status is new enough that he can still play the underdog, especially against Hillary, who'll continue to be seen as the establishment candidate because of her past in the party. And the more we talk about her firewall in Ohio and Texas, the more we lower expectations for Obama, and if Hillary does anything less than trounce him there she'll be seen as having been defeated. So right now I'm thinking Obama will win this, but really it's up in the air.